The tide & the current.
Liquidity & Capital is a vintage-aware, deterministic instrument that measures global liquidity and overlays capital-flow positioning into a single regime read — point-in-time honest, fully reproducible, never revised in hindsight.
Built to survive scrutiny, not to dazzle.
Every reading is built from data exactly as it was knowable at the time — no lookahead, no silent revisions. A backtest sees what you would actually have seen.
output = f(data vintage, config). Same inputs, same number. Every build carries an id you can reproduce from — provenance an analyst can inspect.
Deterministic measurements and probabilistic models live in separate registers. We never dress an estimate up as a fact, or hide the uncertainty.
Liquidity sets the level. Flows set the direction.
The tide is global liquidity — slow, structural, the level the whole market floats on. The current is capital-flow positioning — faster, directional, where the money is actually leaning. Read together, they place the market in one of four regimes — risk-on, risk-off, tide-led, or flow-led — and tell you which force is in charge.
Six layers, one honest read.
A global liquidity composite — G3 balance sheets, Fed net liquidity, M2, the dollar, credit spreads — conformed at fixed FX and z-scored.
Capital-flow positioning from CFTC COT and Treasury TIC, blended into a flow axis and crossed with the tide into a regime quadrant.
An exact decomposition of every move — which factor is driving the tide, to the basis point.
A cross-asset absorption ratio: how tightly markets are co-moving, a read on systemic fragility.
Replay any month's reading as it was knowable through time — the revision drift a vintage-naive backtest hides.
Liquidity-implied forward returns with honest prediction intervals — the signal, and its width.
Inspect the depth, not just the surface.
Reproducible build ids, full provenance on every reading, vintage-correct backtests, and an honest ledger of what is measured versus modeled. Two equivalent storage backends behind one point-in-time contract; an explainable data-quality model that turns a missing input into a reason, not a silent gap. The kind of system a counterparty can verify.